A system for predicting the onset of the north Australian wet‐season

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Abstract
An index is defined for the date of onset of the north Australian wet‐season, based on rainfalls observed at ten stations across tropical Australia. The index is shown to be reasonably representative of wet‐season onset throughout the area of interest. Some suggestion of bimodality is found in the frequency distribution of onset dates. An operationally feasible method for predicting the probability that the wet‐season will commence late is presented, building on earlier published work which has established the feasibility of prediction of seasonal rainfall near the date of onset of the wet. The forecast method uses the linear logistic equation and Darwin pressures observed in months prior to the onset to make predictions. Acceptable forecasts can be issued four months prior to onset. Two examples of the use of the method are provided.

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