Negative Ocean–Air Feedback Systems Over the North Pacific in the Transition from Warm to Cold Seasons

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Abstract
Many short-period climatic variations over North America can he associated with abnormal behavior of the Aleutian low and its upper level wind pattern. Hence, if one could foresee these North Pacific patterns, he would be in a good position to predict some North American short–period climatic variations. This report attempts to show dependence of the strength of the Aleutian low in fall on the sea–surface temperatures in that area developed during the antecedent summer. The physical reasoning considers the sensitivity of the general circulation in this domain against the background of seasonal forcing, i.e., when the thermal roles of the continents and oceans are reversing from warm to cold season. Thus, as progressively colder air masses emanate from northern land areas out to sea, the variable diabatic heating and latent heat exchange play important roles in cyclogenesis (or cyclolysis). Indeed, anticyclogenesis often occurs over cold water because of reduced drag coefficient and less “leakage” from the atmosphere's friction layer. A careful analysis of data from 26 summers and autumns involving sea–surface temperatures (SST's) and atmospheric parameters indicates significant negative lag correlations between summer SST and the subsequent season–s pressure (or mid-tropospheric height). An analysis of the air temperature and precipitation patterns based on 200 stations in the United States lends strength to the postulated regional North Pacific interactions.

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