Modelling Heron Survival Using Weather Data

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Abstract
There is a definite need for methodology which will produce age- and time-specific survival probabilities from bird ringing studies in which only nestlings are ringed, and 1 possible approach to this problem is presented. Models are developed in which the survival rates for 1st-yr birds are weather-dependent (and therefore time-specific) and the rate for 2nd-yr birds is a constant, different from the constant annual survival rate assumed for all older birds, to describe the numbers of recoveries of rings from dead grey herons, Ardea cinerea, ringed as nestlings in Britain [UK] between 1955-1975. The models provide a good fit to the data and a useful and concise description of heron survival. A comparison is made with the predictions of a model for heronry census data.

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