CORONARY RISK-FACTORS PREDICTING CORONARY AND OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH IN 15 YEARS

  • 1 January 1980
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 35  (2) , 107-120
Abstract
A multivariate analysis employing the multiple logistic function model was performed for the prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and of other causes of death as function of 14 coronary risk factors measured at entry examination in the pool of 2 Italian rural populations samples, made of 1712 men aged 40-59 at entry and followed for 15 yr. A limited number of factors, i.e., age, serum cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking habits, forced expiratory volume, diabetes, yielded significant coefficients variously associated each other in the different solutions. They provided a satisfactory discrimination between cases and non-cases, for CHD and for other end-points, including strokes, cancer and lung cancer, particularly chronic bronchitis and all causes of death. A suggestive prediction of violent causes of death was possible due to a significant coefficient attributable to blood pressure. Serum cholesterol was significantly contributory only in the prediction of CHD. The multipotentiality of some factors is stressed in view of the planning of community prevention programs directed towards several chronic conditions at the same time.

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