Adaptive Observations: A Feasibility Study

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Abstract
The feasibility of the recently proposed concept of adaptive observations is tested on a typical case of poorly forecast North Atlantic cyclogenesis. Only numerical tools are employed, no special observations. Although based on simulated data, this study addresses both theoretical and practical problems of adaptive observations. In the first stage of this study, the role of the data assimilation processes is neutralized; the correction is done by forcing correct continuous fields within the target area. These experiments prove that it is necessary to correct the projection of the initial errors on the first unstable plane (the first two leading singular vectors) in order to significantly improve the forecast. These results also clearly demonstrate that the quality of the initial conditions on a limited, but quite large, area could be a major factor influencing the forecast quality. In a second stage, the focus is on operational aspects. The correction is done through the assimilation of a discret... Abstract The feasibility of the recently proposed concept of adaptive observations is tested on a typical case of poorly forecast North Atlantic cyclogenesis. Only numerical tools are employed, no special observations. Although based on simulated data, this study addresses both theoretical and practical problems of adaptive observations. In the first stage of this study, the role of the data assimilation processes is neutralized; the correction is done by forcing correct continuous fields within the target area. These experiments prove that it is necessary to correct the projection of the initial errors on the first unstable plane (the first two leading singular vectors) in order to significantly improve the forecast. These results also clearly demonstrate that the quality of the initial conditions on a limited, but quite large, area could be a major factor influencing the forecast quality. In a second stage, the focus is on operational aspects. The correction is done through the assimilation of a discret...

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