Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted
- 14 March 1997
- journal article
- Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Science
- Vol. 275 (5306) , 1616
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5306.1616
Abstract
Can the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes be predicted reliably and accurately? In their Perspective, Geller et al .'s answer is “no.” Citing recent results from the physics of nonlinear systems “chaos theory,” they argue that any small earthquake has some chance of cascading into a large event. According to research cited by the authors, whether or not this happens depends on unmeasurably fine details of conditions in Earth's interior. Earthquakes are therefore inherently unpredictable. Geller et al . suggest that controversy over prediction lingers because prediction claims are not stated as objectively testable scientific hypotheses, and due to overly optimistic reports in the mass media.Keywords
This publication has 24 references indexed in Scilit:
- Centroid-moment tensor solutions for July–September 1995Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1996
- Initial rupture of earthquakes in the 1995 Ridgecrest, California SequenceGeophysical Research Letters, 1996
- The magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes recorded with deep seismometers at Cajon Pass, southern CaliforniaTectonophysics, 1996
- Debate on evaluation of the VAN Method: Editor's introductionGeophysical Research Letters, 1996
- Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflectionsGeophysical Research Letters, 1996
- Evidence for a constant b‐value above magnitude 0 in the southern San Andreas, San Jacinto and San Miguel Fault Zones, and at the Long Valley Caldera, CaliforniaGeophysical Research Letters, 1994
- Evaluation of Proposed Earthquake PrecursorsEos, 1991
- Pathological SciencePhysics Today, 1989
- Prediction of the Haicheng earthquakeEos, 1977
- A simulation of earthquake occurrencePhysics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 1972