Exploring the limits of optimism: The case of smokers' decision making

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Abstract
Smokers consider themselves less likely than others to contract smoking‐associated diseases. This result has been interpreted as a weak form of irrationality. Alternatively, it can be interpreted as indicating that smokers show an optimism bias. The optimism explanation was examined by having smokers and non‐smokers rate the likelihood of future negative events falling into three categories: (1) smoking associated, (2) health related and (3) health unrelated. Subjects rated their likelihood of the event happening to (1) themselves, (2) the average smoker and (3) the average non‐smoker. Smokers and non‐smokers rated their own likelihood of negative events as less than for the average smoker and the average non‐smoker. But, while smokers rated their own risk as higher for both smoking‐associated and other health‐related problems, they rated their own risk as lower than the average smoker, a standard optimism bias.

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