Mortality data and the binomial probability law

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Abstract
Introduction. Critics of the custom that bases actuarial theory on the probability calculus whilst admitting that probability theory may be applicable, have denied that mortality data satisfy the requirements of independence and equi-probability demanded by ‘simple’ theory. We believe that the proper answer to these polemics is that ‘equi-probability’ and ‘independence’ are technical phrases introduced as part of a theory which is purely conceptual. To seek to deny the applicability of the theory on the grounds of the lack of one-to-one correspondence of these words with their counterparts in the everyday world is precipitate. The evaluation of the theory must be decided by the correctness of the results it forecasts. Few of the critics mentioned have produced statistics which support their case: some have even misapplied the theory they so earnestly criticise.

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