UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF THE ESTIMATED INGESTION RATES USED TO DERIVE THE METHYLMERCURY REFERENCE DOSE

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Abstract
The U.S. EPA's Reference Dose (RfD) for methylmercury (MeHg) uses a simple one-compartment toxicokinetic model to estimate ingestion doses in mg/kg-day from measured concentrations of mercury in hair. The model includes a number of input variables for which point estimates are made. Uncertainty in the inputs is addressed by the use of a 3-fold uncertainty factor. There are, however, published ranges for each variable which are used to develop distributions for each of the inputs. Monte Carlo output of the model is generated. The 90% confidence interval spans a 3-fold to 5-fold range of ingestion doses for any given concentration of mercury in hair. The hair:blood mercury concentration ratio contributes most to the variance of the output. The results indicate that the uncertainty factor of three is appropriate.