Structure identification of parameter-bounding models by use of noise-structure bounds

Abstract
The selection of a model for a given set of records is discussed for the case when the output error is required to be always within some specified bounds. A new selection criterion is proposed: the model should be the simplest giving sufficiently unstructured output errors. The lack of structure is specified by requiring the candidate model to be capable of giving sufficiently small sample autocorrelations of the model-output errors over a range of lags. Computational algorithms to apply the criterion are presented, and illustrated by tests on AR processes.

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