Monitoring and adjusting forecasts in the presence of additive outliers
- 1 April 1984
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Forecasting
- Vol. 3 (2) , 205-215
- https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980030208
Abstract
The effect of an additive outlier upon the accuracy of forecasts derived from extrapolative methods is investigated. It is demonstrated that an outlier affects not only the accuracy of the forecasts at the time of occurrence but also subsequent forecasts. Methods to adjust for additive outliers are discussed. The results of the paper are illustrated with two examples.Keywords
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