One-Child Families or a Baby Boom? Evidence From China's 1987 One-Per-Hundred Survey

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Abstract
China's one-per-hundred population survey, conducted in mid-1987, provides the first nation-level data with which to study recent fertility change in China. Using a recently developed extension of the ‘own-children’ method of fertility estimation, period parity progression ratios are computed from the survey data. Comparison with similar statistics computed from the 1982 one-per-thousand fertility survey provides a rigorous check on the quality of the results. The level of fertility so measured rose by 13 per cent between 1985 and 1987, compared with an increase of eight per cent in conventional total fertility ratios. Nearly 90 per cent of the increase was due to rising levels of progression from first to second birth. There can be little doubt that this, in turn, was due to a relaxation in the one-child family policy. Overall levels of progression to births of higher orders have been declining since 1982, but the evidence suggests that this is so only because of stringent government efforts to control births of third and higher orders.

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