Predicted Genetic Consequences of Strong Fertility Selection Due to Pollinator Loss in an Isolated Population of Primula sieboldii

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Abstract
Previous studies demonstrated strong fertility selection for a self‐fertile, homostyle morph due to pollinator loss in an isolated population of Primula sieboldii, an endangered heterostylous species. To predict genetic consequences of the selection we developed a deterministic genetic model based on a classical “supergene” model, and we studied the effects of pollinator availability and inbreeding depression on temporal changes of morph frequencies through model simulation. Because of the severe pollinator limitation experienced by the population, fast, irreversible loss of the thrum morph from the population was predicted, even if high inbreeding depression was assumed. To prevent the breakdown of the normal breeding system of the species, morph frequency monitoring for timely active management should be implemented. Active management should include hand pollinations and pollinator therapy—reintroduction and reestablishment of suitable pollinator populations. The method we adopted in this study to parametrize pollinator availability can be used widely in conservation modeling for a range of plant species that have multiple mating types with different degrees of self‐incompatibility.

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