Prediction of Commercial Catches of the Western Rock Lobster Panulirus cygnus

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Abstract
Predictions of the size of the Western Australian commercial catch of the western rock lobster Panulirus cygnus have been successfully made 4 yr ahead. The predictive system, which has operated for 9 yr has been recognized by industry and government as an important tool in the management of Australia's most valuable single-species fishery. The accurate prediction depends on demonstrated relationships between the number of rock lobsters at the puerulus stage of their development (the last stage of its pelagic existence) and the level of recruitment to the fishery, and the total catch of the fishery, 4 yr after settlement. Since 1980, predictions of the catches have been based on settlement data from a single site, Seven Mile Beach, which is near the centre of the distribution of the species. The catches of the fishery from 1961–62 to 1983–84 ranged from 6.8 × 106 kg in 1973–74 to 12.4 × 106 kg in 1982–83. Based on a regression of total catches from 1969 to 1979 on puerulus settlement, and allowing for a trend of increasing catch with time, the total catch is predicted to fall to about 7.72 × 106 kg in 1986–87 because of the low level of puerulus settlement in 1982–83. However, increased settlement in 1983–84 and the highest settlement ever recorded in 1984–85 indicate that catches should increase for the 1987–88 fishing season. Similar relationships between life history stages can be discerned for other crustacean species, provided accurate, long-term data are available.