A Comparison of Techniques for Judgmental Forecasting by Groups with Common Information
- 1 March 1990
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Group & Organization Studies
- Vol. 15 (1) , 5-19
- https://doi.org/10.1177/105960119001500102
Abstract
Forty-four groups made judgmental forecasts for five problems. All group members received the same task relevant information: historical data for each variable in the form of a graph, and numerical listing of 36 previously monthly values. Each person first produced an individual forecast, and then was assigned to one of four Group Technique conditions: Statistical, Delphi, Consensus, and Best Member. Results show: (a) low accuracy of group forecasts compared to Actual Best Member forecasts in difficult tasks, (b) under-confidence in unbiased easy tasks and overconfidence in biased difficult tasks, (c) some unequal weighting of individual forecasts to form Consensus group forecasts, and (d) an inability of groups to identify their best members.Keywords
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