Varicella Vaccination Alters the Chronological Trends of Herpes Zoster and Varicella

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Abstract
Population studies on trends of varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) associated with varicella zoster vaccination and climate is limited. This study used insurance claims data to investigate the chronological changes in incident varicella and HZ associated with varicella zoster vaccination. Poisson regression was used to estimate the occurrence of varicella associated with the occurrence of HZ and vice versa by year, season, sex, temperature, and sunny hours. The varicella incidence declined from 7.14 to 0.76 per 1,000 person-years in 2000–2009, whereas the HZ incidence increased from 4.04 to 6.24 per 1,000 person-years. Females tended to have a higher risk than men for HZ (pp<0.001), increased 1.6% within one week post-vaccination. The effect of temperature on HZ was attenuated by 18.5% (p<0.0001) in association with vaccination. The varicella risk was positively associated with sun exposure hours, but negatively associated with temperature only before vaccination. The varicella vaccination is effective in varicella prevention, but the incidence of HZ increases after vaccination. HZ has a stronger association with temperature and UV than with seasonality while varicella risk associated with temperature and UV is diminished.