Epidemics with carriers: The large population approximation
- 1 August 1967
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 4 (2) , 257-263
- https://doi.org/10.2307/3212020
Abstract
This paper applies the constant population approximation to the study of epidemics which involve more than a single type of infective. An example of this would be a situation in which both clinically infected individuals and subclinically infected individuals or carriers are present.We derive equations for the expected numbers of clinically infected individuals and carriers at any time t for the model with zero latent period and infectious periods having negative exponential distributions. From these equations we derive conditions under which a unimodal incidence curve can result, and expressions for the expected total epidemic size.Keywords
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