A Likelihood Method for Estimating Pacific Salmon Escapement based on Fence Counts and Mark–Recapture Data

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Abstract
Pacific salmon escapements in natural streams are often determined by conducting fence counts in conjunction with mark–recapture operations. Typical field conditions are characterized by protracted floods, undetected immigration, variation in sampling rates, mortality during the census periods, small sample sizes, and few successive recaptures. Closed population models tend to overestimate escapement under such conditions, and traditional open population models cannot always be relied on due to the lack of sufficient data. A likelihood-based estimation method was specifically designed for such conditions. A distinguishing feature of this model is that individual recapture histories are not required for parameter estimation. The model is also structured to incorporate ancillary data in the estimation process to improve the precision and accuracy of the estimates. The model is described in detail, and suggestions are made to facilitate its application. Constructed data sets resembling those obtained under field conditions were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The estimates generated with simulated data and actual field data were compared with those based on visual foot surveys and other mark–recapture models.