Selection of Undergraduate Freshmen using Discriminant Analysis

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Abstract
This study’s main purpose was to determine whether or not standard predictors of college “success” might perform more satisfactorily than usual if a 2-valued criterion based on dropouts was employed. Discriminant analysis, when applied to 624 matriculants at the University of Pennsylvania, identified correctly 93 percent of the graduates and 88 percent of the academic dropouts. A small sample of students, who applied to the University of Pennsylvania but did not matriculate, was examined. A rough cost comparison estimated that failure to use the discriminant analysis procedure was in one sense costing the University of Pennsylvania about $333, 000 per year in the late 1960’s.

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