Modelling the dynamic effects of community chemotherapy on patterns of morbidity due to Schistosoma mansoni

Abstract
This paper uses a mathematical framework to predict the long-term consequences of chemotherapy for the age distribution of schistosomiasis morbidity. The framework incorporates a previously validated transmission model, which is here extended to capture effects on 2 forms of Schistosoma mansoni morbidity: early disease exemplified by hepatomegaly and late disease exemplified by Symmers's fibrosis. The main aim of this analysis is to show how such an approach could be used to explore the probable public health consequences of decades of control. It is suggested that this procedure could usefully inform current approaches to the design of long-term control programmes.

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