A TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING INCOME TRENDS FROM CURRENCY DATA AND AN APPLICATION TO NINETEENTH‐CENTURY BRAZIL

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Abstract
This paper develops a method for estimating long‐run trends in income growth from the data available on a country's currency stock. The method is applied to nineteenth‐centry Brazil. The results indicate that contrary to earlier beliefs, the country as a whole probably experienced only moderate growth in per‐capita income during the nineteenth century. The approach may also be useful for other countries where data shortages preclude estimates of national income by conventional methods.

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