Modeling demographic change and characteristics in the analysis of future demand for leisure services

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Abstract
Populations are likely to grow slowly, age significantly, and show increased proportions of minorities in the coming decades. Such factors have received extensive attention as determinants of leisure behavior, but models for projecting future demand for leisure services have often failed to incorporate adequately the simultaneous interactive effects of age, race/ethnicity, and population growth. A cohort‐component population projection model employing age, sex, and race/ethnicity population detail and rates of participation in 10 different recreational and leisure activities is used to examine these interactive effects on the number of future participants in Texas. This number is significantly affected by age and race/ethnicity effects, apart from effects due to population growth, with some activities showing slower growth and others increased growth, due to aging and race/ethnicity effects. Clearly, models employing detailed information on demographic characteristics must be utilized to plan adequately for future demands for different types of leisure services.