Wide variation of prostate‐specific antigen doubling time of untreated, clinically localized, low‐to‐intermediate grade, prostate carcinoma

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Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess the prostate specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of untreated, clinically localized, low‐to‐intermediate grade prostate carcinoma.PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective single‐arm cohort study has been in progress since November 1995 to assess the feasibility of a watchful‐observation protocol with selective delayed intervention for clinically localized, low‐to‐intermediate grade prostate adenocarcinoma. The PSA doubling time was estimated from a linear regression of ln(PSA) against time, assuming a simple exponential growth model.RESULTS: As of March 2003, 231 patients had at least 6 months of follow‐up (median 45) and at least three PSA measurements (median 8, range 3–21). The distribution of the doubling time was: 50 years, 56. The median doubling time was 7.0 years; 42% of men had a doubling time of >10 years.CONCLUSIONS: The doubling time of untreated clinically localized, low‐to‐intermediate grade prostate cancer varies widely.

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