Divisive Presidential Primaries and Party Electoral Prospects, 1932-1976

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Abstract
Using two different units of analysis, this article examines the impact of divisive presidential primaries on party electoral prospects. First, an examination of state-level data from 1932 to 1976 shows that divisive presidential primaries hurt both parties' chances of winning those same states in the November general election. This effect is stronger for Democrats and remains even after controlling for incumbency and state party orientation. Second, an examination of survey data collected in 1972 and 1976 shows that supporters of losing contenders are likely to defect in general elections. Here again, the effect is present for both parties, but more pronounced for Democrats.

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