The risk of multiple sclerosis in Denmark

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Abstract
By means of age specific incidence and death rates for MS [multiple sclerosis], plus age specific death rates all causes, the risk of MS in Denmark was calculated with a modified life-table method. The cumulative lifetime risk of MS from birth is estimated at 201/100,000 (180 in males and 223 in females).sbd. or 1 chance in 500. The cumulative risk remains about the same from birth until age 25 when it begins to decline toward 0 which is reached at age 60. Period cumulative risks from various ages and for periods ranging from 5-30 yr were also calculated. Thus, at age 20, the risk of MS within 10 yr is 74/100,000 and within 20 yr, 142, for both sexes combined. With the likely equivalence of the duration of the illness throughout the world, and with little major variation expected for most regions for death rates, all causes, within the ages of concern, the risk of MS may be estimated for parts of the world considered as high frequency MS (like Denmark), medium frequency (like Italy) or low frequency (like Japan). By applying to these regions the factors of 1.0, 0.3, and 0.04, respectively, as reflecting the ratios of their likely prevalence rates, the cumulative lifetime and period risks may be approximated from the Danish data. Thus in 20 yr, a group of 100,000 Japanese migrating to Denmark at age 10 would be expected to contain 4 MS if they retained the low risk of their homeland, as opposed to 92 MS if they acquired the high risk of Denmark.

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