Abstract
The recent re‐emergence of an interest in the relationships between A levels and degree performance can be viewed in the context of the work of the planning bodies for higher education, and the associated drive to secure reliable performance indicators for planning purposes. However, a number of tacit but questionable assumptions can be seen to underlie the traditional model of students’ performance at the points of entry and exit. Once those assumptions are recognised, implications follow for policy and for decision‐makers, whether in institutions (such as admissions tutors) or outside institutions, in central planning and resource allocation bodies. What might appear to be a purely technical debate amongst statisticians turns out to be intimately connected with contrasting conceptions of higher education.

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