Febrile Convulsions Followed by Nonfebrile Convulsions: Analysis Based on a Maximum Likelihood Method and Discriminant Function

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Abstract
Nontreated patients [262] with febrile convulsions only and 107 with later nonfebrile convulsions were analyzed based on a maximum likelihood method and discriminant function. The formula for discrimination is as follows: y = 2.9193 .times. (basic EEG abnormality at the 1st examination) + 2.2134 .times. (> 20 min in duration of convulsion) + 1.7358 (fever under 38.4.degree. C before convulsion) + 1.7005 .times. (specific EEG abnormality at the 1st examination) + 1.6703 .times. (> 5 recurrences) + 1.5610 .times. (over 4 yr of age at the last convulsion) + 1.4921 .times. (exogenous causes) + 0.3741 .times. (family history of febrile convulsions [FC] among 2nd or 3rd relatives) - 3.0397. If an item is positive, coefficient .times. 1 is to be used, and if it is negative, coefficient .times. 0 is to be applied. When patients are classified with y > 0 as the FCC [outpatient clinic] group, and those with y < 0 as the FC group, misclassification may be theoretically expected in 18.9% of cases (accuracy in 81.1%).

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