A threshold theorem for the Reed-Frost chain-binomial epidemic
- 1 March 1983
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 20 (01) , 153-157
- https://doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200097011
Abstract
We prove a threshold theorem for the Reed–Frost chain-binomial model which is analogous to the threshold theorem of Williams (1971) for the general stochastic epidemic. We show that when the population size is large a ‘true epidemic’ occurs with a non-zero probability if and only if an initial infective individual infects on average more than one susceptible individual.Keywords
This publication has 3 references indexed in Scilit:
- Threshold limit theorems for some epidemic processesAdvances in Applied Probability, 1980
- Final size distribution for epidemicsMathematical Biosciences, 1975
- An algebraic proof of the threshold theorem for the general stochastic epidemicAdvances in Applied Probability, 1971