THE EFFECT OF LONGITUDINAL ARREST PATTERNS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBBERY TRENDS AT THE NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL *

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Abstract
Although the current resurgence of ecological deterrence research has addressed many of the methodological and theoretical problems of earlier studies, the question concerning the appropriate level of aggregation for such models has not been resolved. In this paper, we argue that there is strong evidence in the criminological literature that the neighborhood is the most meaningful level of aggregation for such studies. However, in an analysis of robbery incidents and arrests over 100 weeks in five Oklahoma City neighborhoods we did not find any significant support for the deterrent effect of arrests on subsequent illegal behavior. We propose that the lack of such a relationship reflects periods of short‐term equilibrium in the local community, during which the levels of crime and arrests are relatively stabilized.