Environmental Variation and Striped Bass Population Dynamics: A Size-Dependent Mortality Model

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Abstract
Although density-dependent growth and mortality are understood to play a large role in regulating populations of some young fish, many investigators report associations between striped bass population fluctuations and environmental variation, not density. One explanation is that mortality is primarily determined by size, which responds through growth to environmental conditions. Mathematically relating mortality to inverse size explains several aspects of striped bass biology. Numerical decline of the 1975 Hudson River cohort is well predicted. Simulated year-class strength responds more strongly to changes in growth and length at hatch than to direct mortality of eggs. The effect of changes in length at hatch and growth, rate on subsequent population size decreases as fish grow. Small changes in temperature or food density early in life could cause the reported association of year-class strength and environmental variation. Disappearance of larvae from an early spawning in the Hudson River in 1976 is attributed to decreasing water temperature, which decreased growth rate. Increased mortality of young striped bass may also result from sublethal exposure to toxicants that decrease growth rate and size at hatch. The approach to modeling population dynamics developed here should be valid for other estuarine and marine species.