The Reaction Of Live Hog Futures Prices To Usda Hogs And Pigs Reports

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Abstract
Strong concerns about how efficiently live hog futures prices react to USDA Hogs and Pigs ~eports have been raised by livestock producer groups. Using market survey data, direct tests of the'efficient markets hypothesis are . . performed for the live hog futures market. Two-limit tobit·models account for institutional price limits. Results support the effisien~ market hypothesis in that live hog futures prices: {I) do not react to anticipated changes in .. . ., rep~rted infcirmation, {2) do react significantly and in the expected direction to unanticipated changes in reported information and {3) general1y adjust to unanticipated information on the day following release of the Reports.
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