Time Structure of Observed, GCM-Simulated, Downscaled, and Stochastically Generated Daily Temperature Series

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Abstract
The time structure of simulated daily maximum and minimum temperature series, produced by several different methods, is compared with observations at six stations in central Europe. The methods are statistical downscaling, stochastic weather generator, and general circulation models (GCMs). Outputs from control runs of two GCMs are examined: ECHAM3 and CCCM2. Four time series are constructed by statistical downscaling using multiple linear regression of 500-hPa heights and 1000-/500-hPa thickness: (i) from observations with variance reproduced by the inflation technique, (ii) from observations with variance reproduced by adding a white noise process, and (iii) from the two GCMs. Two runs of the weather generator were performed, one considering and one neglecting the annual cycle of lag-0 and lag-1 correlations among daily weather characteristics. Standard deviation and skewness of day-to-day temperature changes and lag-1 autocorrelations are examined. For heat and cold waves, the occurrence frequ... Abstract The time structure of simulated daily maximum and minimum temperature series, produced by several different methods, is compared with observations at six stations in central Europe. The methods are statistical downscaling, stochastic weather generator, and general circulation models (GCMs). Outputs from control runs of two GCMs are examined: ECHAM3 and CCCM2. Four time series are constructed by statistical downscaling using multiple linear regression of 500-hPa heights and 1000-/500-hPa thickness: (i) from observations with variance reproduced by the inflation technique, (ii) from observations with variance reproduced by adding a white noise process, and (iii) from the two GCMs. Two runs of the weather generator were performed, one considering and one neglecting the annual cycle of lag-0 and lag-1 correlations among daily weather characteristics. Standard deviation and skewness of day-to-day temperature changes and lag-1 autocorrelations are examined. For heat and cold waves, the occurrence frequ...