A stochastic model in simultaneous interchange capacity calculations

Abstract
Recently, a new algorithm for calculating simultaneous power interchange capacity for a power system has appeared in the literature [1]: the method exploits a linearized load flow model appealing to linear programming to maximize the simultaneous power interchange. Realistic constraints in such a calculation must include limitations on available generation via interchanges. The latter is non-deterministic, and it is desirable to use a stochastic model in representing generation margin constraints for interchange studies. In this paper, the linearized load flow model is written in compact matrix notation and generation constraints are considered to be multivariate normal. Under these conditions, the simultaneous interchange capacity becomes a random variable. The statistics of the simultaneous interchange capacity are obtained using information from the Simplex tableau used in the linear programming solution. In a wide variety of cases, virtually no additional calculation is required over the deterministic model in order to obtain these statistics.

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