Premonitory Signs of the 1978 Break in the West Coast Drought

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Abstract
A diagnosis is made of the atmospheric-flow patterns and North Pacific sea surface temperature patterns leading up to the dramatic break in the western drought of the winters 1975–76 and 1976–77. Excessively wet weather occurred during the winter 1977–78. Antecedent signs of the break occurred as early as September 1977—both in atmospheric flow patterns over the Northern Hemisphere and in North Pacific sea surface temperatures. Quasi-objective methods of long-range prediction involving large-scale air-sea interactions were employed to successfully predict the change in precipitation regime.

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