Model-based Regional Assessment of Water UseAn Example for Semi-arid Northeastern Brazil

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Abstract
Water use assessments are a necessary prerequisite for sustainable water resources management and planning in river basins, federal states, or countries. For reasons of transparency, flexibility, ease of update, and the possibility to generate scenarios of future water use, such assessments are best carried out by applying a water use model. To support water resources planning in two federal states of semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, the regional-scale water use model NoWUM was developed. It computes withdrawal and consumptive water use for each of 332 municipalities, distinguishing five water use sectors: irrigation, livestock, households, industry, and tourism. The model is suited to simulate the impact of global change and of management measures on water demand. Using NoWUM, the present-day water use situation in Ceará and Piauí is assessed. In addition, the impact of inter-annual climate variability and long-term climate change on irrigation requirements is considered. Scarce and uncertain input data lead to a high level of uncertainty in the model results. It is likely that water use in the most important sector, irrigation, is underestimated, while industrial water use is possibly overestimated. With some modifications, NoWUM has the potential to be applied for water use assessments in other data-poor regions of the globe.