Predicting the Consequences of Nuclear War: Precipitation Scavenging of Smoke

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Abstract
Several factors need to be better determined in order to predict the climatic impacts of a nuclear war. These include (a) the amount of fuel burned, (b) the emission factor for smoke, (c) the optical properties of smoke, and (d) the amount of smoke removed in precipitation. This last factor combines the need to predict both the dynamic processes taking place in large-area fires and the microphysical processes that create precipitation and lead to the capture and removal of smoke. Estimates for the amount of smoke removed in precipitation have ranged from less than 2% to more than 90%. The reasons for these discrepancies in prediction will be reviewed. Two of the more recent and more complete calculations appear to be consistent with scavenging values in the range from 10% to 30%. We show, however, that these predictions have not considered several scavenging pathways that must be included for a complete analysis. Thus, we argue, based on estimates by the NRC in 1985, that the fraction of smoke removed by precipitation could range from 10% to 90%.