Classifier Technology and the Illusion of Progress
Top Cited Papers
Open Access
- 1 February 2006
- journal article
- Published by Institute of Mathematical Statistics in Statistical Science
- Vol. 21 (1) , 1-14
- https://doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000060
Abstract
A great many tools have been developed for supervised classification, ranging from early methods such as linear discriminant analysis through to modern developments such as neural networks and support vector machines. A large number of comparative studies have been conducted in attempts to establish the relative superiority of these methods. This paper argues that these comparisons often fail to take into account important aspects of real problems, so that the apparent superiority of more sophisticated methods may be something of an illusion. In particular, simple methods typically yield performance almost as good as more sophisticated methods, to the extent that the difference in performance may be swamped by other sources of uncertainty that generally are not considered in the classical supervised classification paradigm.Keywords
All Related Versions
This publication has 33 references indexed in Scilit:
- Supervised classification and tunnel visionApplied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 2005
- Direct versus indirect credit scoring classificationsJournal of the Operational Research Society, 2002
- Modelling consumer credit riskIMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 2001
- A Conversaton with Leo BreimanStatistical Science, 2001
- Credit scoring with uncertain class definitionsIMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 1999
- Comparing classifiers when the misallocation costs are uncertainPattern Recognition, 1999
- Statistical Classification Methods in Consumer Credit Scoring: A ReviewJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 1997
- Learning hard concepts through constructive induction: framework and rationaleComputational Intelligence, 1990
- Maximizing the predictive value of production rulesArtificial Intelligence, 1990
- Costs and payoffs in perceptual research.Psychological Bulletin, 1982