Race Differences in Changing Family Demographics in the 1980s

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Abstract
Traditional demarcators of family formation and dissolution have changed dramatically over the past few decades and Black-White differences have become pronounced. In this article, we explore the degree to which a relatively small set of variables can account for racial difference in timing of initiation of sexual activity, first marriage, first birth, and divorce. The independent variables included in the model are adolescent living arrangements (single-parent vs. two-parent), mother's educational level, religion, region of the country, area of residency (urban, suburban, rural), birth cohort, and year of the survey. Based on hazard models for the rate of occurrence of each event, we estimate how Blacks would differ if they had mean values on covariates equal to White observed means. Although the results differ for the four dependent variables, this particular set of independent variables does not provide a satisfactory explanation of the differences between Black and White family formation and dissolution. Blacks and Whites may be responding to different structural and cultural constraints not easily captured by basic demographic variables.

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