Comparison of Real-Time Reservoir-Operation Techniques

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Abstract
This study presents different operation techniques for real-time reservoir regulation on the basis of two hydrologic models and two optimization methods: the first-order autoregressive (AR) model, the GR3 conceptual rainfall-runoff model, the stretched-thread (ST) method, and dynamic programming (DP). With these elements, three reservoir-operation techniques can be designed by combining one hydrological model with one optimization method, namely GR3 with ST, AR with ST, and AR with DP (stochastic DP). The last possibility (GR3 + DP) is not computable. From the efficiency viewpoint, the techniques for a daily reservoir regulation are compared using a 3-yr recorded data series and then a generated 100-yr data series. The comparisons show surprisingly a favorable efficiency for the technique based on the ST method in the Bar-sur-Seine reservoir upstream from Paris. The study confirms the value of simple optimization methods such as ST and the applicability of scenarios methods in real-time reservoir operation. It emphasizes that the basis of a good reservoir-operation system is to view forecast and decision making as a whole unit.