Toward the Development of an Integrated Crisis Warning System

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Abstract
Research directed toward the development of user-oriented integrated crisis warning systems should incorporate quantitative military, political, and economic indicators for crisis warning; indicators of U.S. military, political and economic interests abroad; and a unified multi-method forecasting capability into an interactive computer base. Initial movement toward this goal has occurred in the development and testing of a first-stage prototype crisis warning system. Tests indicate that the prototype would have contributed to predictions of the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia and the Indo-Pakistani war, and would enable analysts to track crisis and noncrisis events and conditions and to interact productively with a computer-based system. The second-stage prototype will continue to integrate, test, modify, and apply existing and ongoing research to the overall warning and management problem.

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