Growth Uncertainty and Risksharing
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Abstract
How large are potential benefits from global risksharing? In order to answer this question we propose a new methodology that is closely connected with the empirical growth literature. We obtain estimates of residual risk (growth uncertainty) at various horizons from regressions of country-specific growth in deviation from, world growth on a wide set of variables in the information set. Since this residual risk can be entirely hedged through risksharing, we use it to obtain a measure of the potential welfare gain'for' a representative country. We find that nations can reap very large benefits from, engaging in such risksharing arrangements.Keywords
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