Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA "Hogs and Pigs" Reports

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Abstract
This study investigates the rationality of pre-release expectations of experts concerning USDA Hogs and Pigs reports. The expectations are weak-form rational in that they are unbiased predictors of actual report values and the forecast errors are not autocorrelated. In a test of strong-form rationality, all of the economic variables examined were not related to the forecast errors. Thus, the evidence is that expectations of the Hogs and Pigs report are strong-form rational.

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