Prevalence and Progression of Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Younger Adults With Low Short-Term but High Lifetime Estimated Risk For Cardiovascular Disease

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Abstract
Background— We hypothesized that individuals with low 10-year but high lifetime cardiovascular disease risk would have a greater burden of subclinical atherosclerosis than those with low 10-year but low lifetime risk. Methods and Results— We included 2988 individuals ≤50 years of age at examination year 15 from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study and 1076 individuals ≤50 of age at study entry from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The 10-year risk and lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease were estimated for each participant, permitting stratification into 3 groups: low 10-year (<10%)/low lifetime (<39%) risk, low 10-year (<10%)/high lifetime risk (≥39%), and high 10-year risk (≥10%) or diagnosed diabetes mellitus. Baseline levels and change in levels of subclinical atherosclerosis (coronary artery calcium or carotid intima-media thickness) were compared across risk strata. Among participants with low 10-year risk (91% of all participants) in CARDIA, those...