Two Models for Predicting the Seasonal Occurrence of Agromyza frontella (Diptera: Agromyzidae) in Eastern Ontario 1

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Abstract
Two temperature-dependent models have been derived for use in management of the alfalfa blotch leafminer, Agromyza frontella (Rondani), in eastern Ontario. A linear function, designed for grower use and based on heat units above 5°C, will give accurate predictions of the seasonal occurrence of the life stages together with critical biological events such as adult emergence, hatch, and larval dropout. A nonlinear function, based on a polynomial algorithm, will give even more precise simulations and is amenable to computerized forecasting.

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