The outbreak of cooperation

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Abstract
We study the ongoing collective action problem among intentional agents whose choices depend not only on the past but also on their expectations as to how their actions will affect those of others. In this model agents act on the basis of imperfect information. We show that under these conditions the onset of overall cooperation can take place in a sudden and unexpected way. Likewise, defection can appear out of nowhere in very large, previously cooperating groups. These outbreaks mark the end of long transient states in which defection or cooperation persists in groups that cannot sustain it indefinitely.

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