Logistic regression and probability of default of developing countries debt
- 1 December 1990
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Economics
- Vol. 22 (12) , 1649-1660
- https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849000000071
Abstract
This paper presents a logistic regression model for determining the default probability of developing countries debt. The study incorporates 79 countries over a period of 19 years. The model predicted the default of Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina two years in advance. Results indicate that the model has high predictive power.Keywords
This publication has 8 references indexed in Scilit:
- A Macro-Absorption Approach for Estimating the Foreign Debt BurdenEconomic Development and Cultural Change, 1984
- Limited-dependent and qualitative variables in econometricsPublished by Cambridge University Press (CUP) ,1983
- Nonparametric Estimates of LDC Repayment ProspectsThe Journal of Finance, 1979
- Relief and reform in third world debtWorld Development, 1979
- Estimation of linear models with crossed-error structureJournal of Econometrics, 1974
- Predictions from binary choice modelsJournal of Econometrics, 1974
- Upper Bounds for Correlations between Binary Outcomes and Probabilistic PredictionsJournal of the American Statistical Association, 1972
- Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysisJournal of International Economics, 1971