Maximising the global use of HIV surveillance data through the development and sharing of analytical tools

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Abstract
The devastating costs of the disease and the initial alarm followed by limited spread in many industrial countries conspire to generate scepticism among the public, politicians, and professionals alike about the scale of the HIV pandemic.1 Against such scepticism convincing estimates can have a powerful and timely advocacy effect.2 However, for these estimates to be convincing, they need to have a sound empirical basis and be based on transparent well accepted methods. This is the only antidote against the common tendency to overestimate the spread and consequences of a disease to generate more resources for the response to the epidemic. Although overestimation may have public health benefits in the short run, its long term effects will undoubtedly be counterproductive.

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