IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERT

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Abstract
PERT, as an aid in planning for project managers, has been widely accepted, but as yet there appears to be a wide gap between the user's apparent impression of the underlying assumptions and the theoretical assumptions. This paper points out some of the more common misconceptions and their implications upon the total project. The Beta distribution as the underlying probability distribution is evaluated as to first, the overall effects of the inherent errors that are imposed by the basic PERT assumptions, and second, the effects, from a probability distribution viewpoint, of some of the more common PERT misconceptions. Finally, several alternatives to the basic PERT methodology are explored, both from the theoretical and practical viewpoints.