PREDICTION OF DONOR-SPECIFIC TRANSFUSION SENSITIZATON

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Abstract
Using linear logistic regression, six factors were identified as important predictors of risk of DST sensitization in a group of 195 patients. Factors increasing the risk were: percent panel reactive antibody (PRA), previous transplants, and pregnancy; those decreasing the risk were HLA antigens matched, third-party blood transfusions, and Imuran administration. From this analysis, the magnitude of the effect of each factor on the risk of sensitization was obtained. An equation was then obtained that can be used to compute an estimated probability of sensitization (PS) for each patient. As a test of predictive ability of the model, the PS was calculated for 66 patients in an independent patient group. These observations were arranged according to the estimated probability and then divided into intervals of risk. Overall, for each interval, a very high level of agreement was found between the predicted and actual number of sensitized patients. A total of 16.13 patients were predicted to become sensitized and 17 actually did.