1830 and the Unnatural History of Revolution1

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Abstract
When natural histories of revolution do not consist simply of explicated definitions, they generally fail as explanatory theories, largely because they fail to deal with negative cases or to eliminate alternative explanations, and because they assume that a continuous and integrated social system experiences revolution. A more adequate treatment requires that governments, contenders for power, and relations among them be distinguished. Revolution consists of the fragmentation of a single polity. Starting from that view, we develop a political process model of revolutionary change, illustrated and supported by detailed evidence — both quantitative and qualitative—from the French revolution of 1830.

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